Predicting Winter Weather

Across the Fence #517

The steel gray sky seems to arrive earlier every year. That gray sky penetrates my body, bringing with it a chill that stays with me until the last patch of snow recedes into the woods in the spring. The cold chill of winter is in the air and it’s early October. What happened to fall? Where’s Indian Summer? There was snow on the ground in Sherpeland this morning, October 4th. It was enough to track a cat, so it counts as a snowfall.

Predicting the number of snowfalls each winter has been going on for a long time. An old farmer told me how he determined the number of snowfalls. He claimed he’d been “right on” or within a couple of snows every year. He said he takes the number of the first snowfall and adds the number of days since the last new moon. But, it’s not always that easy to determine if a snowfall counts. You have to be able to track a cat in the grass. Cement and blacktop doesn’t count. And, the snow has to stay through a sunrise or sunset. In other words, it snowed last night and was still on the grass when the sun came up, but it all melted by 9:00 am. There was enough snow in the grass that I think I could have tracked a cat, at least in the shorter grass. Does that count? It should, but if I take October 4 and add the number of days since the last new moon, September 23, that’s seven days added to four. That’s only eleven snowfalls! That would be great with me, but I find it very hard to believe. 

I’ve also heard that the number of the day you get your first snow is the number of snowfalls you’ll have that winter. This year that was October 4th. I’m willing to bet we’ll have to endure a lot more than four snowfalls. So I’m going to throw that old folktale out too.

Another old farmer said that if the first snow falls on unfrozen ground, it doesn’t count. The ground isn’t frozen yet, so apparently this first snow where I could track a cat, and the snow lasted through the sunrise, didn’t count. See how hard it is to count snowfalls.

Many people think the best winter forecaster is the woolly worm, or woolly bear caterpillar, depending on what you like to call it. Can the color of woolly bears tell us how long and severe our winter will be? If a lot of them are crawling around with a heavy black coat, look out. The shorter the reddish-brown band is, the longer and tougher the winter will be. I’ve been observing all the woolly bears on my walks each day. There are a lot of them to observe these days. My observations have been that they aren’t completely black, and many have a reddish brown center ring that takes up one third of their length. If you want to go with the woolly bear prognosticators, we’ll have a harsh beginning, a mild middle, and a harsh end to the coming winter. Other people claim to see only solid black ones, so take your pick. Supposedly woolly bears have been accurate 80% of the time since the 1950’s. So, depending on which woolly bears you’ve spotted, you’ll either be right or wrong.

Woolly Bear Caterpillar - Mid-October colors this year.

There are many old folk tales about predicting what kind of weather we’re going to have. I think we need to observe nature and the world around us, as our ancestors did before we had access to daily weather forecasts and Dopler Radar. Nature has its own way of predicting what kind of weather is coming. 

I like to observe which way chimney smoke is going to see what weather is coming. When chimney smoke descends, nice weather ends. If the smoke rises, a good day is ahead.

The old timers say if ant hills are high in July, winter will be snowy. If the birds are frantically attacking your bird feeders, look for a snowstorm to be on the way. The same is true if squirrels are extra busy. Also watch the bird migration patterns. The earlier they leave in the fall, the longer the winter will be. If they’re still hanging around in November, it’s pretty obvious that winter won’t be as long. They know they don’t need to get out of town and head south if harsh weather isn’t on the way. 

I’ve also heard the brighter the fall colors are on the trees, the colder and snowier the winter. So far our colors are only about 40% so it’s too early to make a prediction using that old timer’s tale. Another winter predictor is that for every foggy morning in August, it will snow that many days in the winter. Since I neglected to count the foggy mornings, I can throw that one out the window too.

I’ve found the best way to observe the weather is with a rock. Place a good-size rock outside, where you can see it from your window. If it’s dry, it means good weather. When the rock is wet, it rained, or is still raining. If the rock is covered with frost, it’s freezing outside. If the rock is white, it’s been snowing. If you can’t see the rock, it's either foggy or it snowed a whole bunch. When the rock is visible again, warmer weather is here. When you see green grass around the rock, spring has arrived and it’s time to put away the snowblower.

I’ve found that’s the best way to know what the weather is like. Find yourself a rock and give it a try!

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